Firepower, Factions and the Fight for 2027: The Full Story of Nigeria's Party Primaries This Week

The Week That Will Define 2027

In the space of eight days — from May 19 to May 26, 2026 — Nigeria's major political parties held the presidential, gubernatorial, senatorial and House of Representatives primaries that will determine the candidates contesting the 2027 general elections. It was a week of record vote totals and suspicious arithmetic, triumphant proclamations and furious protests, consensus coronations and genuine competitive battles. A former president reentered the arena. A sitting governor made a carefully worded withdrawal. Seventy serving members of the National Assembly lost their return tickets. And the question that hangs over all of it — whether Nigeria's opposition parties can organise themselves sufficiently to present a credible challenge to President Bola Tinubu — received an answer that is, for the opposition, deeply uncomfortable.

This is the complete, state-by-state, party-by-party account of what happened this week.

The INEC Framework: A Compressed and Consequential Calendar

The starting point for understanding this week is the timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission. Under the INEC framework for the 2027 general elections, party primaries were scheduled between May 22 and June 20, 2026, with campaign activities expected to commence in September 2026. The Electoral Act 2026, the 1999 Constitution as amended, and INEC's own regulations and guidelines govern the entire process.

In practice, most parties front-loaded their exercises. The APC conducted the bulk of its National Assembly and governorship primaries between May 15 and May 21, completing its presidential primary on May 23. The PDP scheduled its presidential primary for May 26, with governorship exercises running from May 17 through May 24. The NNPP aligned all its primaries for May 29. The Labour Party is scheduled for May 29, the SDP for May 28, and the NDC for May 29 to 30. Accord, the smallest major party in the race, is conducting its own exercises concurrently. The convergence of so much political activity into a single ten-day window has produced the atmosphere of simultaneous celebration, litigation preparation and crisis management that has characterised the week.

APC: Tinubu's 10.9 Million Vote Landslide — and the Protests Behind the Numbers

The headline result from the APC's primary week is unambiguous: on Saturday, 23 May 2026, President Bola Tinubu won the APC presidential primary election across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, polling approximately 10.9 million votes against the 16,503 votes secured by his lone challenger, Stanley Osifo — an Edo State businessman who entered the race knowing he could not win but arguing that democracy requires opposition even in a foregone conclusion.

The result was announced at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja by the Chairman of the APC Presidential Primary Election Committee, former Senate President Pius Anyim, in the presence of National Assembly members, serving and former state governors, ministers, and the full party apparatus. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State, who served as the Lagos State collation officer, announced Lagos results showing Tinubu had polled 814,988 votes against Osifo's 1,286. In Rivers State, Governor Siminalayi Fubara declared Tinubu polled 280,468 votes against Osifo's zero. In Edo — Osifo's home state, where he might have expected some sympathy from the electorate — Tinubu secured 131,096 votes against Osifo's one. Kaduna delivered some of the highest figures in the country. Voting took place across 774 local councils and 8,809 wards nationwide.

Tinubu, speaking after voting at Ikoyi-Obalende Ward L2 in Lagos earlier that day, described the exercise as evidence of "internal democracy within the APC" and "grassroots politics where every member has the right to participate." He promised that with another four years of "disciplined focus and national cooperation," Nigeria would be on an irreversible path of economic expansion, industrialisation, energy security and food sufficiency.

The governorship picture from the week preceding the presidential primary, however, tells a more complex story. The APC conducted governorship primaries across 28 states — not all 36, as eight states including Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Ondo and Osun have off-cycle governorship election schedules. Across most of the country, incumbent APC governors were affirmed as consensus candidates for second terms in exercises that were orderly, if in some cases arithmetically implausible.

In the North-West, all incumbent governors were affirmed as sole aspirants. Governor Uba Sani of Kaduna received 459,393 affirmation votes. Governor Dikko Radda of Katsina was affirmed at a packed Government House square. Governor Nasir Idris of Kebbi was confirmed by stakeholders from all 21 local government areas. Governor Dauda Lawal of Zamfara was confirmed by voice vote at the Madawaki Ward headquarters in Gusau.

In Lagos, Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat emerged as the APC governorship candidate, polling 657,917 votes against Lanre Kamal's single vote across all 245 Lagos wards. The exercise was described by the returning officer as a "family affair" — a phrase that, in the context of Lagos politics, carries specific meaning about how the APC's internal selection process actually works. In Ogun State, Senator Solomon Adeola polled 304,055 votes to defeat Abayomi Hunye, who scored zero. In Adamawa, Ahmed Galadima won with 414,444 votes in a competitive three-way contest. In Abia, Eric Opah emerged with 126,977 votes against Henry Ikoh's 5,905 in one of the few genuine contests in the gubernatorial exercises.

In Rivers State, Governor Siminalayi Fubara's withdrawal from the APC governorship primary drew significant attention and was the political moment of the week beyond the presidential result. Fubara, who has been locked in a well-publicised feud with his predecessor and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory Nyesom Wike since taking office, chose not to contest the APC governorship primary, releasing a statement that read: "As our elders say, not everything a hunter sees in the forest is spoken of in the marketplace. Some truths are best borne quietly, not out of fear, but out of wisdom and restraint for the sake of peace and a greater purpose." In his absence, Kingsley Chinda emerged as the Rivers APC governorship candidate with 268,497 votes unopposed — a result that further consolidates Wike's influence over the Rivers political apparatus even from his position in Abuja.

But the picture of APC primaries as a smooth, well-managed exercise conceals a significant volume of internal conflict. Opinion Nigeria documented the full scope of the disorder in a report published this week: in Balanga and Billiri Local Government Areas of Gombe State, party members and delegates waited for hours without accreditation officials, ballot papers or voting equipment on May 16. In Kwara State, the governorship primary was halted midway after voting and mobilisation had already begun, forcing a postponement that was rescheduled twice before the Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Salihu Yakubu Danladi, eventually emerged as the APC governorship candidate. Former Minister of Communications Isa Ali Ibrahim Pantami withdrew from the Gombe governorship primary, alleging violations of the Electoral Act 2026 and lack of transparency in the process. Seventy serving National Assembly members across multiple states lost their return tickets — a figure that has generated an entirely separate layer of aggrieved politicians preparing petitions and court filings. In Zamfara, aspirant Sani Abdullahi Shinkafi warned that the party risked a repeat of the 2019 Supreme Court disaster that cost the APC every elective position in the state, after alleging a plot to impose anointed candidates in the senatorial primaries.

Reuben Abati, one of Nigeria's most respected political commentators, captured the contradictions of the week with precision: "What have we seen so far? Protests. Confusion. Violence. Intra-party crises. Fears and anxieties about the 2027 process."

PDP: Goodluck Jonathan, Factional Paralysis and the Governorship Emerging List

The Peoples Democratic Party entered primary week in a state of structural fracture that no individual candidate's emergence can paper over. The party is effectively operating as two organisations, each claiming legitimacy: the National Working Committee faction led by Kabiru Turaki, and the opposing faction backed by FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, which has Senator Sandy Onor as its presidential aspirant.

The Turaki-led PDP faction cleared former President Goodluck Jonathan as its presidential aspirant on May 19, granting him a waiver from the formal screening process on the grounds that his prior service as deputy governor, governor, vice president and president of Nigeria constituted sufficient vetting. Former Niger State Governor Babangida Aliyu, representing screening committee chairman and former Vice President Namadi Sambo, confirmed Jonathan's status: "The party had given him waiver. In other words, he has been declared and cleared as a candidate of the PDP for the presidential election." Jonathan's presidential primary was subsequently scheduled for May 28 — tomorrow.

The significance of Jonathan's return cannot be understated in the context of Nigerian political history. In 2015, he sought a second term and was defeated by Muhammadu Buhari — the first incumbent Nigerian president to lose a general election, a concession call that was widely praised internationally as a pivotal democratic moment. He is constitutionally eligible to contest in 2027 having served only a single elected term, having first ascended to the presidency through succession after the death of Umaru Musa Yar'Adua in 2010 before winning election in his own right in 2011. His base in the South-South and among many PDP faithful across the country remains significant. Whether the PDP's factional chaos allows him to mount a genuine nationwide campaign is the critical question.

The Wike faction's presidential candidate, Senator Sandy Onor, represents an entirely different strand of PDP politics — one that is explicitly Wike-aligned and has positioned itself closer to the APC administration than any self-describing opposition party would normally be comfortable occupying. The Supreme Court has issued rulings that both factions have claimed as victories in the legal contest over the legitimate NWC leadership, creating a situation of genuine constitutional ambiguity that INEC will ultimately have to adjudicate when it is time to validate submitted candidates.

The PDP's governorship primaries, conducted on May 25 and 26 where the Turaki faction has operational control, produced outcomes across several states. In Ogun State, former federal lawmaker Oladipupo Adebutu was affirmed as the PDP governorship candidate through a voice vote of delegates from 20 local government areas and 236 wards — a consensus adoption that reflects the Adebutu family's historic relationship with Ogun PDP politics. Katsina, Jigawa, Lagos and other states similarly produced PDP flagbearers through combinations of consensus adoption and competitive voting. Former Senate President Bukola Saraki confirmed Kale Kawu as the PDP consensus governorship candidate in Kwara State — a development that puts the Senate leader's influence directly in play against the APC's Speaker Danladi in what will be one of the most closely watched gubernatorial contests of the 2027 cycle.

The Labour Party and NNPP: Internal Crises, Primaries Pending

The Labour Party and the New Nigeria Peoples Party have both spent more time in courtrooms than on campaign trails over the past eighteen months, and neither enters primary week from a position of organisational strength.

The Labour Party has been fractured since 2024 between the Julius Abure-led faction and the Senator Nenadi Usman-led faction, with INEC under its previous leadership having de-recognised the Abure faction without expressly confirming the Usman faction as the legitimate party authority. That ambiguity has persisted into 2026 and creates genuine uncertainty about which set of primary results INEC will ultimately recognise when candidates are submitted for the 2027 ballot. The LP's presidential primary is scheduled for May 29, and the emerging candidate from whatever leadership structure conducts the exercise will face immediate legal challenge from the opposing faction.

The Smaller Parties With Big Names: NDC, Accord, ADC and the Peter Obi Question

The Nigeria Democratic Congress has attracted the most significant presidential aspirant outside the main parties: former Anambra State Governor and the Labour Party's 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, is the NDC's sole presidential aspirant, with its primary scheduled for May 29 to 30. Obi's decision to contest under the NDC banner rather than the fractured LP — the party that carried him to 6.1 million votes in 2023 — reflects a calculation that the LP's factional crisis makes it an unreliable platform and that a fresh vehicle might allow him to reconstitute the "Obidient movement" constituency that powered his 2023 performance.

Accord Party has former presidential candidate and business tycoon Dr Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim as its sole presidential hopeful. The African Democratic Congress, though conducting primaries this week, is navigating its own counting crisis. Former Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi rejected the ADC's primary results, alleging widespread disenfranchisement in the exercise — adding yet another name to the growing list of aggrieved aspirants preparing legal challenges across multiple parties.

What This Means for 2027: The Structural Assessment

The primary week has produced a political landscape in which Tinubu enters the 2027 campaign with a united party machine, an incumbency advantage that includes the deployment of federal resources across all 36 states, and an opposition that — at this specific moment — appears unable to present a unified candidate or a coherent national coalition.

The oppositional arithmetic is challenging. Jonathan on the PDP ticket is the most credible challenge to Tinubu's re-election by virtue of name recognition, a prior presidential record, and a southern Christian demographic positioning that creates a potential geographic and religious coalition of its own. But he is running under a fractured PDP whose Wike faction is openly operating in proximity to the APC, and whose party structure outside the South-South and the Turaki-aligned NWC states remains deeply uncertain. Peter Obi on the NDC offers the possibility of reconstituting the 2023 "third force" coalition, but must do so from a party without the grassroots infrastructure the Labour Party built in 2022 and 2023. And Seyi Makinde — whose alliance of the PDP and Alliance Peoples Movement represents a different kind of opposition architecture — brings the Oyo governorship machinery and South-West credibility but faces the question of whether a cross-party alliance can survive the legal challenges an unconventional candidacy will inevitably attract.

The APC, for all the protests and ghost votes and postponements and aggrieved losers its governorship primaries produced, has demonstrated what a well-resourced federal governing party does during a primary cycle: it affirms its sitting governors, secures its incumbents, manages its discontents into the petition process rather than defections, and presents a unified presidential candidate to the electorate with a number — 10.9 million primary votes — that signals organisational reach whether or not every digit in that tally was authentically cast.

Nigeria goes to the polls in February and March of 2027. The candidates are beginning to take shape. The battles — in courts, in party offices, on the campaign trail, and at the ballot box — are only just beginning.

Sources

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