MARTIN LEWIS REVEALS CHEAPEST ENERGY FIXES AVAILABLE NOW AS BILLS RISE BY 13 PERCENT

The July Shock and Why It's Not Inevitable for You

On July 1, 2026, energy bills for millions of British households will rise by 13 percent. Ofgem, the energy regulator, confirmed the increase on May 27, raising the Energy Price Cap from £1,641 to £1,862 per year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit. The cause is straightforward: wholesale gas prices have spiked sharply as a direct consequence of the 2026 conflict in the Middle East, which disrupted supply chains and drove global energy markets into a period of volatility not seen since the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

But Martin Lewis, founder of MoneySavingExpert.com and the UK's most trusted personal finance commentator, has delivered a message that cuts against the resigned acceptance many households feel when they hear "bills are going up": for most people, this 13 percent rise is not inevitable. It is, in his own words, "voluntary." And avoiding it is entirely within reach for the majority of British households — if they act before July 1.

"These changes only apply to those on firms' bog-standard tariffs," Lewis wrote in his MoneySavingExpert newsletter following Ofgem's announcement. "That means everyone on the Price Cap should consider getting off it, if they can."

What the 13 Percent Rise Actually Means in Pounds and Pence

Before getting to the solutions, it helps to understand exactly what this rise means in concrete financial terms — because the headline figure of 13 percent lands differently depending on how you pay and how much energy you use.

For households paying by monthly Direct Debit — the most common arrangement — the Price Cap rises from £1,641 to £1,862 per year on typical usage, a rise of £221 annually, or roughly £18.42 per month. For those paying on receipt of a quarterly bill rather than by Direct Debit, the rise is slightly steeper at 13.1 percent, taking the typical annual bill from £1,772 to £2,005. For prepayment meter customers, the rise is 13.5 percent, from £1,597 to £1,812 per year.

These are "typical household" figures, based on Ofgem's assumed usage of 2,700 kilowatt hours of electricity and 11,500 kilowatt hours of gas annually. Use more than this — which many households with larger homes, older heating systems, or higher occupancy do — and the rise in pounds will be proportionally greater. Use less, and the impact will be smaller.

One important contextual note that Lewis has specifically highlighted: the July rise hits during the summer months, when most homes use significantly less energy than in winter. On average, households use around 15 percent of their total annual energy consumption during the July-to-September quarter. That means someone paying £150 a month on energy will see a rise of around £30 to £40 over the entire three-month period of the new cap — "not good, but not catastrophic," in Lewis's framing. The more serious concern is what happens in autumn and winter if the current Price Cap level persists or rises further.

And that concern is well founded. At the time of writing, the October 2026 Price Cap is predicted to rise again — by a couple of percent above the already-elevated July level, based on the latest forecasts from EDF Energy, British Gas, and E.on Next, the three suppliers whose Price Cap forecasting services MSE relies upon. Analysts note that even if the conflict in the Middle East were to end tomorrow, wholesale prices are unlikely to fall quickly enough to push the October Cap back to where it stood before July.

The Core Advice: Fix Now If You Can

Martin Lewis's central recommendation, updated on June 23, 2026, is clear: if you are one of the 60 percent of UK households currently sitting on a standard Price Cap tariff, the risk-averse move is to switch to a fixed-rate deal before July 1. The reason is simple — the best available fixes are currently cheaper than both the existing Price Cap and the July level to which it is rising, meaning you save money immediately and lock in a predictable rate for 12 months, insulating yourself from both the July rise and any further increases in October.

"If you're risk averse, the thing to do right now would be to grab a cheap fix to lock in prices for a year — yes, there's a chance cheaper deals could be around in a couple of weeks but there are no guarantees," Lewis has written.

The honest caveat Lewis acknowledges is that there is no guaranteed certainty here. If the Iran war ends more quickly than expected and wholesale gas prices fall sharply, deals available after a ceasefire could theoretically be cheaper than those on offer now. But as Lewis notes, "there is no way to know what'll happen, as it depends on the Middle East conflict." In the absence of that certainty, fixing now offers what he calls "a good move now, even if in hindsight it may not turn out to be."

That said, Lewis is explicit that this advice applies specifically to one-year fixes. Longer fixes are a harder decision, because the further out you go, the harder it is to predict whether market conditions will have changed dramatically.

The Cheapest Fixes Available Right Now

The landscape of available fixed deals has been volatile in recent weeks, with energy suppliers responding to wholesale market movements by pulling or repricing their tariffs with little notice. Despite this volatility, MSE's Cheap Energy Club — the whole-of-market comparison tool that Lewis consistently recommends — has continued to surface deals materially below the July Price Cap level.

As of the most recent update on June 23, 2026, the following broad options are available, though specific tariff availability changes daily and the cheapest deal in your area will depend on your usage and region.

The best available 12-month fixed deals are currently running at approximately 13 to 15 percent below the July Price Cap level — meaning a household that would otherwise face a £1,862 annual bill at the cap could fix at a rate closer to £1,582 to £1,620 annually on typical usage. This is the headline saving figure Lewis has cited in multiple communications, though he has also noted that market turbulence means particularly cheap deals are disappearing faster than usual, and any specific deal available today may not be available tomorrow. His March 2026 mini-briefing on the Middle East conflict and energy markets explicitly warned: "Many firms are reassessing their fixed prices today and may reprice their deals upward. There's a risk many of the current cheapest fixes will be gone by this time tomorrow."

All of the fixed deals currently identified by MSE as best-in-class require a smart meter — a condition worth checking before beginning a comparison, as households without a smart meter may find their options more limited. The deals also require payment by Direct Debit.

The Variable Deal Alternative: Home Energy's Fair Variable Tariff

Beyond standard 12-month fixed tariffs, MSE has also identified a variable tariff from a smaller supplier that currently undercuts the Price Cap without committing you to a fixed rate. Home Energy's Fair Variable tariff is, as of June 23, 2026, approximately 10 percent cheaper than the Price Cap on average. Because it is a variable tariff rather than a fixed one, it carries no exit fees — meaning you can leave if a better deal comes along without penalty.

However, Lewis is careful to note the caveats. Home Energy is a small, relatively new supplier with limited customer service track record — a meaningful consideration in an industry where smaller suppliers have occasionally struggled or collapsed during periods of market volatility. And because it is a variable tariff, its rates can change upward at any time — the 10 percent saving is today's figure, not a guaranteed 12-month lock-in. "Its rates and standing charges are governed by the Price Cap, so you'll never pay more than that if you choose to switch to this tariff" — meaning the downside is capped, but the upside of a sustained large saving isn't guaranteed.

For households that want price certainty, the fixed deal is the cleaner option. For those who want flexibility and are comfortable with a smaller but established saving and no exit fee, the Home Energy variable is worth considering.

Why You Should Not Simply Take Your Existing Supplier's Fix

One of the most consistent and emphatic pieces of advice Lewis has issued throughout this period is this: do not automatically accept your current supplier's own fixed deal without shopping around first.

"Don't stick with your own firm's fix though, many don't have cheap deals," he wrote plainly in his May 27 analysis. This matters because many suppliers, when their customers approach them about switching away from the standard tariff, will offer proprietary fixed deals that may appear competitive at first glance but are not necessarily the cheapest available on the open market. Suppliers have financial incentives to retain customers on their own products, and their own fixed rates may be priced to reflect that interest rather than to offer the best possible value.

The whole-of-market comparison through MSE's Cheap Energy Club is specifically designed to address this problem — it shows deals that do not pay a referral commission alongside those that do, which is critical because, as Lewis explicitly notes, "most hide tariffs that don't pay them, and the cheapest fixes at the moment often don't pay." Standard comparison sites with commercial referral models may systematically exclude the cheapest available tariffs.

Prepayment Meter Customers: An Unfair Gap

One significant and frustrating caveat to all of the above: the cheap fixed deals currently available on the open market are substantially less accessible for households on prepayment meters. Lewis has explicitly flagged this gap: "Sadly, cheap fixes aren't available for those on prepayment meters." The structural reason is that fewer suppliers offer competitively priced fixed deals in the prepayment segment, reflecting both the higher administrative cost of managing prepayment accounts and the historical credit risk profile associated with that payment method.

Prepayment customers facing the July rise have fewer tools at their disposal than Direct Debit customers. Lewis's broader advice for this group includes checking eligibility for any applicable energy support schemes, exploring whether a switch to a smart prepayment meter might improve available tariff options, and using the Energy Price Cap Calculator to understand exactly what their bills will look like from July.

The October Threat: Why Acting Before Summer's End Matters

Even households that feel less urgency about the July rise — because summer bills are lower anyway — should be aware that October 2026 presents a more serious financial challenge. Current forecasts from the major energy analysts point to a further, if smaller, rise in October — potentially pushing a typical annual bill above £1,900. It is this winter scenario, rather than the summer months, that represents the genuine test of household energy affordability.

A 12-month fix taken before July 1 provides protection through to summer 2027, covering the winter months of 2026-27 at a predictable, locked-in rate. This is the core financial logic behind Lewis's recommendation: not just to avoid the July rise specifically, but to insulate against whatever happens to wholesale markets through a winter period in which the impact of energy bills on household budgets is felt most sharply.

Practical Steps: What To Do Right Now

Martin Lewis's specific guidance for any household on a Price Cap tariff who wants to act on this advice can be summarised as follows.

First, check whether your current tariff is the standard Price Cap tariff or an existing fixed deal — your bill or your supplier's online account will confirm this. If you are already on a fix that ends within 50 days or less, Lewis advises looking for a better deal to switch to, but only if you find something materially cheaper than the July cap level.

Second, use the MSE Cheap Energy Club at moneysavingexpert.com to do a whole-of-market comparison. Enter your usage details, payment method, and region. The tool will show you available deals ranked by cost, alongside Price Cap predictions for the next 12 months so you can compare the total cost of fixing against the expected total cost of staying on the Cap.

Third, when switching, check the exit fees on any deal you select — most 12-month fixes carry early exit penalties if you leave before the term ends, typically around £30 to £50 per fuel. Factor this into your decision, particularly if there is a chance your circumstances will change significantly in the next 12 months.

Fourth, confirm you have a smart meter, as this is a prerequisite for most of the cheapest available fixed tariffs. If you do not have one, contact your supplier to request one — they are installed at no cost, and the process is generally straightforward.

Finally, act promptly. The market conditions producing these cheap fixes are driven by the Iran war's trajectory, and Lewis has been explicit throughout 2026 that specific deals can be withdrawn within hours of cheap wholesale market coverage. The deal available today may not exist tomorrow.

As Lewis put it most bluntly: for most people, July's 13 percent energy price cap rise is voluntary. It can be avoided. And, in his view, it should be.

Sources

1. MoneySavingExpert (Martin Lewis) — "Is it time to fix your energy or stay on the Price Cap?" (Updated June 23, 2026) — moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/are-there-any-cheap-fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it
2. MoneySavingExpert (Martin Lewis) — "Martin Lewis: For most people, July's 13% Energy Price Cap rise is voluntary – it can (and should) be avoided" (May 27, 2026) — moneysavingexpert.com/news/2026/05/martin-lewis-energy-price-cap-rise-july
3. MoneySavingExpert — "What is the Energy Price Cap?" (Updated June 2026) — moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-is-the-energy-price-cap
4. MoneySavingExpert — "How will energy prices change?" (Updated June 16, 2026) — moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/energy-price-cap-prediction
5. MoneySavingExpert (Martin Lewis) — "Conflict in the Middle East: Martin Lewis' 'get off the Energy Price Cap' mini-briefing" (March 3–4, 2026) — moneysavingexpert.com/news/2026/03/martin-lewis-iran-energy-price-briefing
6. LADbible (Brenna Cooper) — "Martin Lewis shares how to avoid new 13% energy price cap rise arriving in July" (May 27, 2026) — ladbible.com
7. Homebuilding & Renovating — "Martin Lewis warns price cap is still 'pants' and cheapest deals could beat it by 15%" (February 25, 2026) — homebuilding.co.uk

Tariff availability, pricing, and market conditions change rapidly and are specifically subject to developments in the Iran war and global wholesale energy markets. The figures cited in this article reflect publicly available information as of June 23, 2026. Readers are strongly advised to check moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/cheap-energy-club for the most current tariff comparisons before making any switching decision.