This study examines how climate vulnerability affects the development of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria, using annual time series data covering the period 1986 to 2024. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL framework, supported by the Error Correction Model, to capture both short run adjustments and long run relationships among the variables. The key variables include manufacturing output, temperature, carbon emissions, rainfall, human capital, investment, labour force, trade openness and gross domestic product. The unit root results show that the variables are integrated at different orders, which makes the ARDL approach appropriate. The findings reveal that climate related factors play an important role in shaping manufacturing performance. In the short run, fluctuations in rainfall and increases in carbon emissions reduce manufacturing output, while past output has a strong influence on present output levels. Over the long run, carbon emissions and rainfall continue to exert negative effects on the sector, indicating persistent exposure to climate related disruptions. On the other hand, improvements in human capital and sustained investment contribute positively to manufacturing growth, suggesting that capacity building and capital formation enhance productivity. The error correction term is significant and negative, showing that any short-term imbalance adjusts back to equilibrium over time. The study concludes that Nigeria needs to strengthen climate adaptation strategies, promote cleaner production systems and invest more in human capital to support sustainable industrial development.
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