The escalation of the United States–Iran conflict in early 2026 has significantly disrupted global energy markets, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, driving crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. This study examines the implications for Nigeria, an oil-exporting but refined petroleum-import-dependent economy. Elevated global oil prices have generated short-term fiscal gains by boosting government revenue, export earnings, and foreign reserves. However, structural challenges including limited domestic refining capacity, production bottlenecks, and reliance on imported fuel have transmitted these shocks into higher domestic petrol prices, cost-push inflation, exchange rate volatility, and reduced household purchasing power. The analysis highlights a dual economy effect: while oil export gains strengthen fiscal and external positions, socio-economic burdens intensify for households and businesses. To address these challenges, the study recommends implementing targeted stabilization measures, such as temporary social support and strengthened exchange rate management, expanding and modernizing domestic refining capacity to reduce reliance on imported petroleum products, and promoting economic and energy diversification by investing in non-oil sectors and alternative energy sources.